:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Jul 29 0218 UTC
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
22 - 28 July 2024

Solar activity reached moderate and high levels this period with a
total of nineteen R1 (Minor) events and three R2 (Moderate) events
observed throughout the week. The largest event of the period was an
M9.9 flare at 28/0157 UTC from Region 3766 (S07, L=331,
class/area=Dac/150 on 28 Jul). Shortly before this flare, the region
produced an M7.8 flare at 28/0151 UTC. Associated with these two
events were a 250 sfu Tenflare and a 1053 km/s Type II sweep. Region
3762 (S11, L=20, class/area=Fkc/440 on 28 Jul) was the most active
region and produced an M7.7/1b flare at 28/1042 UTC, in addition to
seven R1 events throughout the week.

Other notable activity included an Earth-directed CME, first visible
in C2 imagery at 26/2124 UTC off the SSE, that was associated with a
filament eruption late on 26 Jul. Another Earth-directed CME
resulted from a long-duration M3.1 flare at 27/0546 UTC from Region
3662. The 27 Jul CME was faster than the 26 Jul CME and are likely
to arrive concurrently beginning late on 29 Jul/early on 30 Jul. A
full-halo CME associated with the M9.9 flare at 28/0157 UTC, and
first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 28/0224 UTC, is expected to
arrive mid-to-late 30 Jul. A final Earth-directed CME followed an
episode of dimming in the vicinity of Region 3768 (S16, L=4) at
around 28/1400 UTC, and is expected to arrive as a glancing-blow
late on 31 Jul/early 01 Aug.

A solar energetic particle event occurred early on 23 Jul as a
result of far sided flare activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux reached S1 (Minor) storm levels beginning at 23/0300 UTC,
reached a peak flux of 24 pfu at 23/1040 UTC, and decreased below S1
levels at 23/2350 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux reached
the 1 pfu event threshold beginning at 23/0205 UTC, reached a peak
flux of 1 pfu at 0430 UTC, and decreased below 1 pfu at 23/1510 UTC.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels on 22-23
Jul, and at quiet levels on 24 Jul, under nominal solar wind
conditions. Quiet and unsettled levels were observed on 25 Jul with
the onset of CME influences late in the day. Periods of active
conditions and G1 (Minor) storming were observed on 26 Jul in
response to sustained CME influences and the onset of positive
polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet to active levels prevailed on 27
Jul as CME and CH HSS influences diminished. Quiet and unsettled
levels were observed on 28 Jul with the return of ambient solar wind conditions.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
29 July - 24 August 2024

Solar activity is expected to reach moderate to high levels, with
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events likely to expected, and a slight
chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events throughout the period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring
significant flare activity.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to persist at normal to moderate levels throughout the
outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm
levels on 29 Jul, G3 (Strong) storm levels on 30 Jul, and G2
(Moderate) storm levels on 31 Jul, all in response to the
anticipated arrival and passage of multiple CMEs from 26-28 Jul.
Quiet and quiet to unsettled geomagnetic field activity is expected
to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

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