XPost: alt.politics.elections, alt.politics.republicans, talk.politics.guns XPost: sac.politics

Democrats may be rallying around Kamala Harris as their likely
presidential nominee, but the vice president has some ground to make up
with at least one critical constituency: Hispanic voters.

National polls ù most of which were conducted before President Joe Biden
bowed out of his reelection bid and endorsed Harris to replace him on the Democratic ticket ù show Harris struggling to win the kind of support
among Hispanic voters that Democratic candidates have long counted on.

The lagging enthusiasm among one of the nationÆs fastest-growing
electorates isnÆt a new problem for Democrats. Before he ended his
reelection bid on Sunday, Biden also grappled with flagging support among Hispanic voters, a diverse constituency that was once considered reliably Democratic.

Now, with Biden out of the running and Harris emerging as the likely
Democratic nominee, the onus is on the vice president to make up lost
ground.

ôThereÆs definitely work to be done,ö said Fernand Amandi, a Miami-based Democratic pollster who worked on former President Barack ObamaÆs 2012 reelection campaign. ôItÆs not going to be the instant shot in the arm
that itÆs proving already to be with some other voters. But the good news
for Team Harris is there is an opportunity to relaunch and reset the
entire presidential campaign with Hispanic voters. They were
underperforming before. And the only way to go is up, in terms of
potential ceiling.ö

MORE CONTEXT: Why Hispanic immigrants who support Trump are embracing his hardline border stance

AmandiÆs polling firm, Bendixen & Amandi International, fielded a survey earlier this month that found both Biden and Harris scoring just 42%
support among Hispanics nationally, roughly on par with former President
Donald Trump, who notched 41%. By comparison, Biden and Harris won 65% of Hispanic voters in the 2020 presidential election, according to exit
polling from Edison Research.

Likewise, another poll released on Monday by Quinnipiac University showed Harris and Trump tied among Hispanic voters at 39% each in a multi-
candidate field that also included third-party and independent hopefuls,
like Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Amandi cautioned against putting too much weight on recent polls. He said
that BidenÆs decision to bow out from the campaign thrust the country into
a ôcompletely different political environment,ö and argued that the coming weeks ù when Harris will likely name a running mate and formally accept
the Democratic nomination ù will offer more clues about where her support
among Hispanic voters stands.

ôWeÆre going to have to reevaluate everything,ö Amandi said. ôWas Biden underperforming among Hispanics? Absolutely, no question. But this is an opportunity now to see what this new ticket does and whether it can get Hispanics to revert back to the mean.ö

A spokesperson for HarrisÆ presidential campaign did not respond to the
Miami HeraldÆs request for comment.

READ MORE: This could be a big deal in November. HereÆs whatÆs driving
Hispanic voters to the right

ôThey have a problemö
Democrats have long relied on robust support among Latinos to rack up
electoral wins, both nationally and in states like Florida and Arizona.
But cracks have formed in that coalition in recent years, as Republicans
have ramped up their efforts to appeal to those voters.

Harris has a track record of turning out Latino voters in her home state
of California, which has the largest Hispanic population in the country.
She won a majority of the Latino vote in 2010 and 2014 in her two
campaigns for state attorney general, but fell short of the 50% mark
during her 2016 Senate campaign against fellow Democrat Loretta Sanchez.

She has also racked up support from influential groups like Voto Latino
and BOLD PAC, a Democratic political action committee aligned with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.

FROM THE ARCHIVES: How non-Cuban Hispanics in Miami helped deliver Florida
for Donald Trump

But that kind of support isnÆt likely to dramatically change HarrisÆ
fortunes among Hispanic voters, said Mike Madrid, a longtime Republican political consultant in California and staunch Trump critic. He said that DemocratsÆ increasing difficulties with Latino voters is part of a decade-
long trend that has seen Latinos increasingly align with Republicans.

He said Harris has the potential to ôslow the bleedingö with Latino
voters. But to argue that the political shift among Latinos can be
reversed by a change of candidate at the top of the ballot, Madrid said,
ôis quantifiably untrue.ö

ôKamala has the ability to begin reframing this, but to think that sheÆs
going to fundamentally restructure the race with Latinos is unlikely,ö
Madrid said. ôTheyÆve got to start understanding that they have a problem
with this base vote. ItÆs not a candidate problem.ö

RELATED CONTENT: House Democrats are investing $35 million to target
voters of color in 2024 election

Signs of improvement
There are still some signs that Hispanic voters might be more eager to
back Harris for president than Biden. A CNN/SSRS poll released on
Wednesday found Harris with a slight, albeit statistically insignificant, 47%-to-45% lead over Trump among Hispanic voters. Earlier polling found
Biden trailing Trump among those voters by nine percentage points.

Another poll from NPR, PBS News and Marist College released on Tuesday
painted an even brighter picture for Harris. That survey showed her
garnering the support of 47% of Hispanic voters nationwide, while Trump
notched just 31%.

But some pollsters suggested that HarrisÆ bump in support may also be the product of a honeymoon period where voters ù weary from weeks of wondering whether or not Biden would stay in the race ù are temporarily rallying
around the idea of a new Democratic candidate.

Mike Noble, an Arizona-based pollster who works throughout the Southwest,
said while Harris may give Democrats a new standard bearer, her candidacy doesnÆt change the fundamentals of the presidential race. Harris, he said, ôisnÆt some outsider candidate. SheÆs BidenÆs right-hand person. She still
has to answer to the electorateÆs concerns when it comes to inflation,
housing affordability and immigration.ö

Because of that, Noble said that he doesnÆt see the Hispanic vote suddenly swinging wildly in HarrisÆ favor. Voters of all kinds, he said, are
largely locked into their political corners, and arenÆt likely to
experience a drastic change of heart now that BidenÆs out of the running.

ôI donÆt think [the race] resets,ö Noble said. ôThe electorate is so
polarized right now, and thatÆs the inherent problem. YouÆre not going to
see these big swings.ö

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kamala-harris-comes-starting-gate-
213717323.html

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)