From Mike Powell@CAPCITY2 to All on Mon Sep 16 08:34:00 2024
AWUS01 KWNH 160911
FFGMPD
NDZ000-161510-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1020
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
510 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024
Areas affected...Central ND
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 160910Z - 161510Z
SUMMARY...Locally training showers and thunderstorms going through
early to mid-morning may result in some isolated areas of flash
flooding.
DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows an axis of very
cold topped convection impacting portions of central ND as strong
thunderstorms developing within a well-defined warm air advection
pattern lift gradually off to the northeast. The convection is
aligned in close proximity to a frontal zone and a rather strong
instability gradient with MUCAPE values of as much as 2000 J/kg
noted across areas of central and southern ND.
MRMS data has been showing some rainfall rates with the activity
reach as high as 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour and this is being aided by
rather strong moisture transport associated with the nose of a 30+
kt southerly low-level jet.
Going through the early to mid-morning hours, there may be some
additional concentration and alignment of convection that will
promote some cell-training in close proximity to the front.
Additionally, there is some weak vort energy/MCV activity arriving
from weakening convection over western SD, and this energy may
interact with the front and the low-level jet to further promote
convective sustenance across areas of central ND this morning.
Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches will be possible with
isolated heavier amounts of 5 inches where any cell-training
occurs this morning. The antecedent conditions across the region
are quite dry, so any flash flooding concerns should be isolated
in nature and mainly focused within the more urbanized locations.