• Severe Potential IA/MO/IL

    From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Tue Jul 30 09:41:00 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 301347
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301347
    ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-301515-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1741
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0847 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024

    Areas affected...portions of southern Iowa...northern Missouri...and
    extreme west-central Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 301347Z - 301515Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Damaging gusts are possible this morning and afternoon as
    a cluster of storms tracks southeast across southern Iowa into
    northern Missouri and extreme west-central Illinois. A watch may be
    needed this morning, though timing is uncertain.

    DISCUSSION...A well organized cluster of storms currently moving
    into central Iowa has produced gusts near 50 kt within the past 30
    minutes or so. This activity may be somewhat elevated in the wake of
    overnight convection. Nevertheless, 35-45 kt effective shear
    magnitudes and MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg will likely maintain
    organization. While outflow from overnight convection has surged
    southward to near I-70 in Missouri, the airmass has shown signs of
    quick recovery, with surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s F noted
    in 13z surface obs. Clear skies ahead of the cluster will also allow
    for quick heating through the morning hours. As a result, downstream destabilization and erosion of capping is expected.

    The ongoing cluster of storms may continue to gradually intensify
    and pose a risk for damaging gusts into late morning/early afternoon
    as the downstream airmass continue to recover/destabilize. Given the
    effect of overnight convection on the airmass, there is some
    uncertainty in convective evolution and timing of possible watch
    issuance. Nevertheless, it appears possible a severe thunderstorm
    watch could be needed this morning across parts of the discussion
    area.

    ..Leitman/Gleason.. 07/30/2024

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

    LAT...LON 42349441 42269405 41809260 41299159 40839101 40509093
    40249100 39839175 39769254 39799287 39929347 40419440
    41129519 41509531 41969529 42349441
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