ACUS11 KWNS 120642
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120642=20
FLZ000-ALZ000-120845-

Mesoscale Discussion 2057
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Areas affected...coastal Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 668...

Valid 120642Z - 120845Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 668 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for showers and storms with potential to produce
tornadoes may be in the process of diminishing across southeastern
Mississippi, but it could still increase across coastal areas of the
western Florida Panhandle and adjacent coastal Alabama through 3-5
AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Rapid weakening of Francine continues, with notable
drying circulating around its southern through southeastern
periphery and likely to continue overspreading southeastern
Mississippi and the Mobile Bay vicinity during the next few hours.=20
The surface low is in the process of migrating near/northwest
through north of the Lake Pontchartrain vicinity. As the
north-northeastward motion continues, model forecast soundings
indicate that initially enlarged clockwise curved low-level
hodographs across southeastern Mississippi will begin to shrink
within the next hour or two.

Instability associated with mid/upper 70s surface dew points is
probably needed for stronger convection to overcome the warm
mid-levels. Aside from immediate coastal areas around Gulf Shores
AL, this remains largely offshore, where a number of rotating cells
have been evident the past few hours. However, some inland
advection still appears possible through daybreak across at least
the coastal western Florida Panhandle, where low-level hodographs
are still forecast to become sufficiently enlarged and clockwise
curved to support at least a conditional risk for tornadoes.

..Kerr.. 09/12/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!98h4_hci-7kQHhxHcsWfmXiZd9b4I0001usWvnazhnjBaM782QvCl0mj5B6l3zhx0HCWHD4EB= alB1niaOcCmopEQxZg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON 29608568 29498600 29488655 29588724 29858786 30118819
30528810 30478737 30438713 30448631 30238586 29608568=20


=3D =3D =3D
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